2025 Review & 2026 Outlook
By Barry Kirkwood, General Manager, Gemini Personnel China
2025 has been a year of challenge, solidifying issues that really began with the post-Covid reopening. Western companies are facing critical headwinds. The return of tariffs has created global uncertainty, while aggressive local competition is eroding the market share Western firms once held.
From my perspective on the ground, the market has pivoted. The era of general expansion is over. The new reality is strict operational efficiency to survive local competition.
Recruitment
The recruitment market has been tight for the last three years, but it isn't dead. Specific pockets of growth exist if you look in the right places.
We are seeing high demand in Tech (specifically AI), Financial Services (FinTech), and Smart Manufacturing, where China is now leading the way. Competition for the talent that drives this innovation is fierce between Western and Chinese firms. The Legal sector is also expanding, driven by the need for compliance teams to navigate increasingly complex international trade laws.
For the expat market, the reality is stark. The generalist expat manager role is effectively obsolete. The roles we do see are strictly for technical experts or those with specific industry connections. The "In China, For China" mandate means prioritizing local leaders is non-negotiable, with existing expats retained primarily to preserve institutional knowledge.
Finally, we are doing a lot of work with Chinese firms going global, expanding into SE Asia, Latin America, and Europe. A major hurdle remains the expectation for local staff in those regions to speak Chinese, so we are spending a lot of time advising clients on realistic talent strategies.
Payroll and Outsourcing
Companies are moving to "insulate" their operations against risk. We are seeing a surge in the adoption of PEO (Professional Employer Organization) models, which allow companies to test new markets or maintain a presence without the heavy risk of setting up a full legal entity.
Advisory is critical here. Labor laws and policies, especially around terminations, are constantly changing. When companies need to downsize, the process must be executed with precision to ensure full compliance with local labor law and minimize legal or financial fallout.
Visa and Immigration
There has been a clear split in the visa market: inbound volume has dropped, while outbound demand has surged.
Inbound work visas are down across the board, except for specialized roles in Financial Services and High-Tech engineering. Conversely, we are processing a massive volume of outbound business visas for Chinese teams expanding to Asia, Europe, and the US. For these global projects, securing work permits early is essential to prevent project delays.
On the tourism side, many countries (including much of Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea) are benefiting from the 30-day visa-free policy. However, the US, UK, and Canada remain excluded with no current plans to change.
(Note: China has introduced a new "K-Visa" for high-level STEM talent, but its implementation effectiveness remains to be seen).
Outplacement
Restructuring and office closures have understandably driven growth in this sector.
For companies, the strategy cannot just be about cutting heads. It requires planning contingencies from legal and financial perspectives to mitigate fallout before any announcement is made.
For candidates, the job market is hyper-competitive. A good CV is no longer enough. Our coaching has shifted focus to brand building, referrals, and accessing the "hidden job market" through networking. We are also advising many senior leaders and returning expats to look at fractional roles or entrepreneurship as viable alternatives to the corporate ladder.
2026 Outlook: The Year of the Horse
As we enter the Year of the Horse and kick off the 15th Five-Year Plan, the macro theme is clear: speed and high-quality growth. The government is signaling an end to "involution" (the race-to-the-bottom price wars) and shifting focus to value creation and innovation.
This shifts the talent reality. You cannot build a high-value business with low-cost, short-term hires. My advice is to stop hiring just to fill seats to plug gaps. Every hire needs to have the capability to drive that innovation agenda, not just manage the status quo.
More importantly, in a market shifting toward quality, retention is likely your biggest risk. Local competitors are aggressively headhunting top talent to fuel their own move up the value chain. If you haven't reviewed your compensation, benefits, and career paths recently, do it now. If you aren't paying market rates, someone else will.
Get in Touch
Whether you are insulating your China operations, planning a global expansion, or just trying to navigate the current compliance landscape, you need a partner who understands the reality on the ground.
We are currently advising clients across the full spectrum, from compliant exits and restructuring to market entry and executive search. If you need to discuss your strategy for 2026, contact me directly.
Barry Kirkwood
General Manager
Gemini Personnel China
