Hong Kong’s Employment Sentiment and Economic Outlook: Navigating Stability, Talent Gaps, and Strategic Growth
As the final quarter of 2025 unfolds, Hong Kong’s economic and employment landscape presents a nuanced picture of cautious optimism, strategic recalibration, and emerging opportunities. Businesses and professionals alike are adapting to a dynamic environment shaped by global economic shifts, technological transformation, and evolving workforce expectations.
Economic Overview: Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty
Hong Kong’s economy expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly up from 3.0% in Q1, driven by strong exports and improving domestic demand. The government maintains its GDP growth forecast at 2%–3% for the year, citing robust performance in merchandise trade and increased investor confidence.
Hong Kong continues to rank among the world’s top financial centres:
- #1 globally for IPO fundraising in H1 2025
- #5 globally by market capitalization
- GDP per capita at US$55,610, placing it #20 worldwide
These indicators reflect the city’s enduring appeal as a gateway to Asia and a hub for international finance, despite global trade tensions and interest rate uncertainties.
Employment Sentiment: Stability Over Expansion
According to KPMG’s 2025 Employment Outlook, only 24% of Hong Kong business leaders expect headcount increases, while 44% of C-level executives express cautious optimism about hiring. This tempered sentiment is driven by rising operating costs, talent acquisition challenges and shifting employee expectations.
Stability has emerged as the top non-monetary factor for job seekers, overtaking career progression. This reflects a broader desire for security amid market volatility and evolving workplace dynamics.
Talent Acquisition Challenges
A staggering 97% of C-level and HR leaders report difficulties in hiring the right talent, with the challenges most acute in professional services, public sector and financial services. The skills gap is widening, particularly in areas like generative AI proficiency, digital transformation, sales and business development, and data analytics and financial acumen.
Employers are increasingly sourcing talent from the Greater Bay Area (GBA), with 65% of Hong Kong-based firms already operating or planning expansion into GBA cities. Tax incentives and logistics integration make cross-border hiring more attractive.
Sectoral Trends: Winners and Watchpoints
- Financial and professional services: Resilient hiring and salary growth
- Consumer markets and real estate: Facing headwinds due to oversupply and cautious spending
- Innovation and technology: Expanding rapidly, especially in AI, automation, and cybersecurity
The Northern Metropolis development, Top Talent Pass Scheme, and Quality Migrant Admission Scheme are reshaping Hong Kong’s talent landscape, attracting global professionals and creating new business opportunities.
Salary Outlook: Conservative Adjustments
The average salary increase in Hong Kong for 2025 was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in 2024. Companies are adopting more prudent pay strategies, with performance and market benchmarks driving decisions.
Looking Ahead: Strategic Workforce Planning
To thrive in Q4 and beyond, Hong Kong businesses must invest in upskilling, especially in AI and digital tools, enhance employee engagement and retention, adopt flexible work models, and align hiring with commercial and technological priorities. For job seekers, the focus should be on adaptability and cross-functional skills, strategic career planning and exploring opportunities in emerging sectors.
Gemini’s Role in a Changing Market
At Gemini Personnel Ltd, we remain committed to helping organisations and professionals navigate change with confidence. Whether through executive search, contract staffing, or HR consulting, our goal is to build resilient teams that thrive in uncertainty.
